Hurricane Lowell, a massive Category 4 cyclone, remains on a course that forecasters believe will bring it close to Niihau and Kauai by Monday, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.
State and county officials urge residents to prepare for severe weather conditions, including powerful winds, heavy rain and life-threatening surf throughout the state, but especially in Kauai County.
As of 5 a.m. today, Lowell had maximum sustained winds of 150 mph and was centered 630 miles south-southwest of Lihue and 625 miles south-southwest of Honolulu. The hurricane was moving west at 7 mph away from the islands, but a sharp “turn to the northwest is expected by tonight, followed by a faster motion toward the north and north-northeast on Sunday and Monday,” forecasters said.
“On the forecast track, the center of Lowell will move across portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, just to the west of the main Hawaiian Islands, Monday night,” they said. By that time, Lowell is expected to weaken but still pack Category 3-force sustained winds of 130 mph and higher gusts.
Hurricane-force winds of 74 mph or more extend up to 60 miles from Lowell’s center, and tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph or more extend up to 160 miles.
“The guidance is coming into better focus on Lowell’s path near the Hawaiian Islands, with the bulk of the models taking the center 100 to 200 nautical miles (115 to 230 miles) west of Kauai County in about 72 hours,” the CPHC said at about 5 a.m.
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Forecasters warned of the following possible impacts on the islands:
>> Rain: Hurricane Lowell is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum totals exceeding 10 inches possible, for Kauai and the Big Island. For Maui, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible. Across the remaining islands, rainfall of 1 to 2 inches, with maximum amounts of 4 inches, is possible. This rainfall may produce locally significant flash flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Heavy rainfall associated with Lowell will begin to impact the Hawaiian Islands Sunday afternoon and continue through early next week.
>> Wind and storm surge: There is a risk of storm surge and wind impacts for portions of Hawaii, particularly Kauai County, early next week, and watches will likely be issued later today. Residents should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow advice from local officials.
>> Surf: Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions during the next several days across many of the Hawaiian Islands. Residents should consult products from their local weather office.
As of this morning, the National Weather Service has posted a high surf advisory for the south and east shores of all islands through 6 p.m. Sunday. Surf of up to 14 feet is expected along east shores, 12 feet along south shores, increasing to 14 feet by Sunday afternoon, and up to 8 feet along west-facing shores of the Big Island.
A small craft advisory is also in effect until 6 p.m. today for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island leeward waters and Big Island southeast waters.
Before Lowell’s expected close pass west of Kauai and Niihau Monday, Hawaii’s weekend weather is expected to include breezy tradewinds that will continue with partly cloudy skies and scattered trade showers this morning, gradually increasing through the weekend, mostly in windward and mauka areas overnight and early Sunday. Daytime temperatures are forecast to be in the high 80s today.
Lowell is the most powerful and the sole threat to Hawaii of three tropical cyclones churning in the Central and East Pacific.
Karina was a minimum hurricane with 75 mph maximum sustained winds and was centered 795 miles east-northeast of Hilo this morning. It was moving northwest at 8 mph and is expected to continue weakening over the next couple of days. It is expected to be a post-tropical depression with 35 mph winds by Monday, far northeast of Hawaii, and to dissipate by Tuesday.
Off the Mexican coast in the East Pacific, Hurricane Marie had 90 mph maximum sustained winds and was centered 675 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California, moving northwest at 9 mph. It is expected to continue in that direction and be a post-tropical depression by Thursday, hundreds of miles off the coast of Southern California.