It can be hard to shake the feeling that the outcomes of some Vermont elections are all but certain, particularly in statewide contests. The power of incumbency and the state’s liberal leanings can take the drama out of races.
Heavy hitters including U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and former senator Patrick Leahy handily defeated opponents again and again. It’s worth noting, however, that unexpected electoral breakthroughs launched the political careers of both men.
Leahy was the Chittenden County state’s attorney when he decided to run for Senate in 1974 in a state that routinely sent Republicans to Congress. In fact, Vermont had never elected a Democratic senator — and Leahy was challenging longtime GOP incumbent and Vermont icon George Aiken. But then Aiken unexpectedly announced that he would not seek reelection, and Leahy instead faced Republican Richard Mallary, Vermont’s representative in the U.S. House.
Read more in the 2026 Voters’ Guide:
That election was the first since the Watergate scandal led to Republican president Richard Nixon’s resignation. GOP candidates had poor showings around the country, and Leahy won a narrow victory. It kicked off his U.S. Senate career, which spanned an astonishing 48 years.
Sanders ran in that 1974 Senate race, too, as a Liberty Union candidate. He took in 4.1 percent of the vote. Sanders lost a string of statewide contests before he was famously elected mayor of Burlington in 1981 by a mere 10 votes. The rest is democratic socialist history.
The moral: The outcome is never assured.
It would be an understatement to write that Republican Gov. Phil Scott, first elected to the post in 2016, has handily defeated all comers. That year, he bested Democrat Sue Minter, getting 53 percent of the vote to her 44.2.
Since then, several Democrats have challenged the governor, and none has improved on Minter’s tally, while Scott’s percentage of the vote has risen steadily.
Most recently, in 2024, former Middlebury Selectboard member Esther Charlestin ran against Scott as a D. Vermont’s polls closed at 7 p.m. on election night, and the Associated Press called the race for Scott at 7:33 p.m. — before most districts had reported any tallies. When the numbers were actually counted, Charlestin had gotten only 21.8 percent of the vote.
This year, though, a political newcomer, Democrat Amanda Janoo, has shown she has plenty of lift. She defeated a better-known opponent, former nonprofit leader Aly Richards, in the gubernatorial primary. Recent polls say the contest is more competitive than Scott’s past few races. One recent University of New Hampshire poll put Janoo narrowly ahead of Scott; two other polls showed him leading. Janoo reported raising more campaign cash than Scott last month.
Seven Days has followed the governor’s leadership closely. In this Voters’ Guide — as well as in our cover story this week — you can learn more about Janoo’s insurgent campaign and Scott’s response.
We’re not making any predictions. Polls, as we have all seen, can be off the mark. American politics feel so volatile at this moment that we’re bound to see some surprises on November 3.
It’s a pretty safe bet, though, that this time around, the AP will not call the Vermont governor’s race by 7:33 p.m.
When all is said and done, who wins is not up to pollsters or pundits. Voters like you decide.
Our guide aims to help you choose. We invited all candidates on the ballot for statewide offices to respond in writing to questions about how they would approach the office they seek. The answers are their own, lightly edited for clarity.
We hope you find this useful as you exercise your right to vote. ➆
The original print version of this article was headlined “Race On! | Vermont has had its share of election surprises. Are any in store this year?”
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