Higher food prices elevate inflation in Honolulu

Honolulu consumers are finding it more expensive to both eat out and to prepare food at home.

Higher food prices contributed to the county’s inflation rising 1.1% over the two-month period that ended in January, and increasing 2.4% over the previous 12 months, according to a report issued Friday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The 12-month increase matched the 2.4% gain on a national level, but the state’s 1.1% gain from Nov. 25 to Jan. 26 was the highest two-month increase since March 2024 when inflation rose 1.5%.

“Honolulu inflation at 2.4% (over 12 months) in January 2026 is lower than the 2.5% average annual inflation rate over the past 30 years (1995-2025),” said Eugene Tian, who retired at the end of May after serving as chief economist for the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism. “But in the normal economic growth period before COVID-19 in 2009-2019, the average inflation rate in Honolulu was 2.0%, which is the ideal inflation rate for Hawaii.”

Tian, who expects inflation in Honolulu to increase about 2.8% this year, said the current rate at 2.4% is still relatively high mainly due to the tariffs that have affected food and apparel, most of which is imported.

Still, he said Hawaii’s real, or inflation-adjusted, gross domestic product of 2.7% through the first three quarters of 2025 — compared with 2.1% nationally — is positive for the state.

“Along with strong economic growth and a low unemployment rate, Hawaii’s economy is one of the best in the nation,” Tian said. “When we look at the statistics over the past few months, however, Honolulu inflation is trending up. The 1.1% over two months is high as compared with the U.S. at 0.3%.”

Over the one-year period that ended in January, Honolulu food prices jumped 2.9%, with prices for food away from home gaining 3.4% and the cost for food at home rising 2.6%.

While food costs were rising, consumers were able to save at the pump with gasoline prices decreasing 2.9% over the past year and falling 1.5% over the November-to-January period.

Excluding the volatile food and gas components, the consumer price index for Honolulu increased 2.7% over the year, reflecting higher prices for apparel (up 7.1%), medical care (up 5.3%) and shelter (up 2.9%). Energy, however, fell 2.3% over the past year and declined by 1.3% over the past two months.

DBEDT said in its latest economic forecast released in December that it expects inflation to rise 2.7% this year and then fall 2.5% in 2027 and decline 2.3% in 2028 amid easing inflationary pressures.

The University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization forecast in its December report that inflation will rise this year as tariffs continue to pass through to consumer prices. UHERO said it expects inflation will peak around 3.5% late this year before gradually easing to 3.0% by year-end and then to 2.9% in 2027 and 2.4% in 2028.

“By 2027, Honolulu consumer prices will be about 1.5% higher than they would have been without recent tariffs hikes, raising annual costs for a typical Hawaii household by about $1,400,” UHERO said in its report.

HONOLULU INFLATION

Prices mostly rose in the two-month period from late November to late January and over the past year:

Category 12-month change 2-month change

All items 2.4% 1.1%

Food 2.9% 0.4%

Food at home 2.6% -0.3%

Food away from home 3.4% 1.4%

Shelter 2.9% 1.7%

Apparel 7.1% -0.7%

Gasoline -2.9% -1.5%

Medical care 5.3% 1.3%

Energy -2.3% -1.3%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics