Bills (13-5) at Broncos (14-3)
When: 2:30 p.m. Saturday
Where: Empower Field at Mile High Stadium
TV: KCNC-4
Radio: 850 AM/94.1 FM
Broncos-Bills series: These two AFC powers will hop back into the ring after Denver fell 31-7 in Buffalo in the wild-card round last season. The Broncos have been at the Bills’ mercy historically, with a 17-22-1 record all-time in the regular season. They’ve never beaten Buffalo in the playoffs, either, with John Elway and company falling 10-7 in the AFC Championship game in 1992.
In the spotlight:
Justin Strnad is sick of the Broncos’ inside linebackers taking all the heat for passing-game breakdowns.
“It’s just funny to me,” Strnad told The Denver Post on Wednesday. “Because online it’s just like – if a tight end or a running back has a great day it’s automatically (on us), you know what I mean?”
It’s not. Step into Strnad School for a moment. Vance Joseph’s defense in Denver is often predicated on playing certain leverages within man coverage. At times, Strnad explained, linebackers could have designed responsibilities on a specific call to play with outside leverage. If an opposing tight end or running back flares open from the slot or backfield on an in-breaking route, that wouldn’t be that linebacker’s fault. And that’s not even mentioning the Broncos’ use of match coverages, where defenders pass off assignments mid-play based on offensive motion.
All of this to say: those leverages and match-coverage communication will be especially important come Saturday, facing a Bills team bereft of dynamite wide receivers but bristling with talented matchup threats.
“They mix everything up,” Strnad said of the Bills’ offense system. “Mesh (routes), in-breakers.”
In 2024’s wild-card game, a flimsy middle triangle of Denver’s defense collapsed in a season-ending 31-7 loss to Buffalo. Star Bills running back James Cook ran roughshod in a 23-carry, 120-yard, one-touchdown performance. Tight-end tandem Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox combined for five catches and 85 yards. Quarterback Josh Allen got anything he wanted between the numbers in a 20-of-26, 272-yard, two-touchdown performance.
Denver turned to the offseason to specifically address those needs, signing safety Talanoa Hufanga and linebacker Dre Greenlaw as hard hitters who could also make a difference in coverage. Still, versatile pass-catchers have nagged an otherwise excellent Joseph unit throughout 2025. Colts rookie tight end Tyler Warren beat the best Denver had to offer in a four-catch, 79-yard game in Week 2. Chargers rookie running back Omarion Hampton caught six passes a week later. Chiefs veteran Travis Kelce went for nine catches, 91 yards and a touchdown in Denver’s 22-19 win over Kansas City in November.
Buffalo offensive coordinator Joe Brady, now, is poised to once again exploit the Broncos’ soft spots. The Bills utilized motion on an NFL-high 78% of their snaps this season, according to Next Gen Stats. Denver has suffered a few notable communication breakdowns since returning from a mid-November bye week, and will now have to play on a string against arguably the best quarterback in the NFL in Josh Allen.
“He’s just a kind of a generational talent,” Broncos quarterback Bo Nix said of the 6-foot-5, 237-pound Allen this week. “You don’t see that all the time, guys as big as the defensive linemen just being able to be as athletic as skill players. It’s not normal.”
Bills tight end Kincaid led Buffalo in yards per game (47.6) in the regular season, and partner Dawson Knox is a former Pro Bowler. Denver needs linebacker Dre Greenlaw to play with renewed lateral quickness, as Greenlaw’s returning from a two-game absence due to a hamstring injury. Saturday could also prove a showcase for Denver rookie cornerback Jahdae Barron, whose playing time ticked up across his last two games in 2025 in larger nickel packages.
It’s a brutal matchup for the Broncos’ linebackers; Joseph can’t play heavy doses of defensive backs, as the Bills enter with the top-ranked rushing attack in the NFL.
“We’ll be ready for it,” Strnad said.
Who has the edge?
When Broncos run: The Bills sported one of the worst run defenses in the NFL in the regular season, a trend that carried through to their wild-card win over Jacksonville last weekend — the Jaguars put up 154 yards on the ground on 6.7 yards per carry. They got run over by the Ravens’ Derrick Henry in Week 1. They got run over by the Falcons’ Bijan Robinson in Week 6. They are not particularly effective when they stack the box, surrendering 4.0 yards per play (third-last in the NFL). The Broncos would love J.K. Dobbins back for this one, but it’s time for RJ Harvey and Jaleel McLaughlin to get moving. Slight edge: Broncos
When Broncos pass: By the inverse, the Bills sported the best passing defense in the NFL in the regular season, allowing the fewest yards of any NFL team through the air. Cornerbacks Tre’Davious White and Christian Benford form one of the best tandems in the NFL, and safety Cole Bishop has had an outstanding year in coverage (three picks). One caveat: starting safety Jordan Poyer is banged up, leaving Buffalo likely to turn to fifth-round rookie Jordan Hancock, who struggled some in the Bills’ win over the Jaguars. Overall, though, this is another conservative and prickly secondary for Bo Nix. Edge: Bills
When Bills run: 26-year-old James Cook was tasked with the most responsibility of his career this season and responded with a gem: a league-leading 1,621 rushing yards on 5.2 yards per carry across 17 games. A stout Jaguars run defense limited him to 46 yards on 15 carries last weekend, but Cook chopped up the Broncos for 120 in the AFC wild-card round last year. Don’t forget about Josh Allen, who ran for 579 yards and 14 touchdowns in the regular season. Denver needs free-agent signees Greenlaw and Hufanga to play downhill with full recklessness on Saturday. Slight edge: Bills
When Bills pass: Allen is dynamite, and has made do all season, most recently finishing 28-of-35 for 273 yards and a touchdown against Jacksonville. But Denver’s helped here by the lack of go-to wideouts on Buffalo’s roster. The Bills’ most dangerous wideout is slot demon Khalil Shakir, and tight end Dalton Kincaid is a handful (571 yards and five touchdowns in 12 games in 2025). Vance Joseph’s defense has been susceptible to matchup-problem tight ends all year, but Denver could live with a heavy dose of Pat Surtain on Kincaid Saturday. Slight edge: Broncos
Special teams: Buffalo activated kicker Matt Prater for the wild-card round after the 41-year-old returned from a quad injury, and Prater responded with a tidy two-of-two day on field goals. The Bills are ruthless in the red zone, and don’t have much need for either a kicker or punter, but Prater and Mitch Wishnowsky have both had solid seasons. Buffalo also has a first-team All-Pro weapon in returner Ray Davis, who led the NFL in kick-return yardage in 2025. The Broncos’ Marvin Mims Jr. led the NFL in punt-return yardage. This’ll be a fun battle. Edge: Even
Coaching: McDermott has built one of the great modern juggernauts in Buffalo with seven straight 10-win seasons, but is facing a heap of pressure to take the Bills to the promised land. The seat’s not hot, but a loss Saturday would pour a nice helping of propane on the fire underneath. In a playoff matchup like this, Super Bowl experience wins out. Denver’s assistant coaches have also seen their phones blow up over the last couple of weeks with interview requests. Slight edge: Broncos
Tale of the tape
| Broncos | Bills | |
|---|---|---|
| Total offense | 342.6 (10th) | 376.3 (4th) |
| Rush offense | 118.7 (16th) | 159.6 (1st) |
| Pass offense | 223.9 (11th) | 216.6 (15th) |
| Points per game | 23.6 (14th) | 28.3 (T-4th) |
| Total defense | 278.2 (2nd) | 293.1 (7th) |
| Run defense | 91.1 (2nd) | 136.2 (28th) |
| Pass defense | 187.2 (7th) | 156.9 (1st) |
| Points allowed | 18.3 (3rd) | 21.5 (12th) |
By the numbers
8: Josh Allen’s total number of playoff wins without a Super Bowl appearance, the most for any quarterback in NFL history.
8: Sean McDermott’s total number of playoff wins without a Super Bowl appearance, the most for any coach in NFL history.
9: Josh Allen’s career number of rushing touchdowns in 14 total playoff appearances.
159: Total receiving yards for Bills midseason acquisition Brandin Cooks, who began his career under Sean Payton in New Orleans.
3: The number of downfield catches Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain II has allowed this season in 18 targets, per Next Gen Stats.
45.3: Broncos rookie WR Pat Bryant’s average receiving yardage in his last six games played in the 2025 season.
X-factors
Broncos: OLB Nik Bonitto. Denver’s star-laden pass-rush got after Allen in last year’s wild-card matchup to the tune of a 44% pressure rate, but generated just two sacks. The Broncos’ edge rushers will have the doubly difficult task of trying to get Allen on the ground while also not letting him — or running back James Cook — beat them off the edge. Bonitto, snubbed for an All-Pro, is paramount in that task. He had one of his better games of the year in Week 18 against the Chargers, and Denver needs him playing at full $26.5 million-per-year capacity.
Bills: WR Keon Coleman. The literal definition of an X-factor here. The 2024 second-round pick has been slowly phased out of Buffalo’s receiver rotation in a disappointing 38-catch, 404-yard sophomore season, but no Bills wideout has the tools to match his physical skillset: 6-foot-4, 215 pounds. By frame alone, Coleman could present difficulties for Broncos CB2 Riley Moss and nickel Ja’Quan McMillian — if his head’s on straight. He’s the definition of an X-factor.
Post predictions
Parker Gabriel, Broncos reporter: Broncos 23, Bills 22
More often than not this fall, the Broncos have found a way. That’s a good trait to have entering the postseason, where everybody is good and nothing is easy. So many arrows point in Denver’s direction — rest, overall health, roster depth, homefield advantage, so on and so forth. Really one arrow points in Buffalo’s: Josh Allen. He is the great equalizer. If on Saturday he is merely the great near-equalizer, the Broncos will play for a trip to the Super Bowl.
Luca Evans, Broncos reporter: Broncos 23, Bills 20
Theoretically, Buffalo should win. The city of Denver won’t like that this game’s line is so narrow, considering the Broncos are well-rested and earned the AFC’s No. 1 seed for a reason. The Broncos just aren’t poised on paper to take advantage of Buffalo’s weakness to the run game. That being said, Denver’s defense will give Bo Nix and Sean Payton a chance to close this game in the fourth quarter, where they’ve rarely faltered in 2025.
Troy Renck, columnist: Broncos 22, Bills 21
This is not a great matchup for the Broncos. Josh Allen is the hardest quarterback to defend. He has posted six straight playoff games without a turnover. He loves to throw to tight ends, which the Broncos have issues trying to defend. And don’t get me started with Bo Nix’s struggles against zone defense. But the Broncos will stay tethered, and win with a late field goal as they have done inexplicably all season.
Sean Keeler, columnist: Broncos 25, Bills 23
Josh Allen feels inevitable. He’s also 1-2 lifetime in the postseason when sacked three or more times. Those tush-pushes can’t beat you if The Winter Soldier’s facing third-and-forevers. In a perfect world, the Broncos keep Allen off the field and keep James Cook contained. Sean Payton’s never lost a playoff game when his team’s had a week of rest first (4-0). The Allen Legacy Tour has been a heck of a ride. But It’s about to blow a tire in Broncos Country.
Nate Peterson, sports editor: Broncos 23, Bills 21
The Broncos are due. Sorry, Bills Mafia, but the road to an elusive Super Bowl victory ends in Denver. Led by a defense that was tops in the league during the regular season for sacks (68) and red-zone defense, the Broncos are going to the mattresses on Saturday. Last year’s wild-card loss in Buffalo was much closer through nearly three quarters than the 31-7 final score indicated, and with another year under Sean Payton and Vance Joseph, Denver has closed the gap, is rested and healthy, and is primed to deliver the Mile High City its first AFC title game in a decade.
Want more Broncos news? Sign up for the Broncos Insider to get all our NFL analysis.