A running monthly survey of people affected by Maui’s wildfire disaster nearly two years ago suggests that some market rental housing rates have begun to come down after spikes tied to emergency needs.
The most recent results from the University of Hawaii Economic Research
Organization surveys from April to June also show that more than half of fire-affected households now live in permanent housing, which UHERO called a
“significant milestone” in a report released for publication today.
“There has been important progress in transitioning from more temporary to more permanent housing
for fire survivors,” Daniela Bond-Smith, a report author and UHERO research
economist, said Monday in an interview.
Among those still living in temporary housing, nearly 50% have been in the same place for more than a year, up from 5% a year ago, according to survey results.
“Although many fire survivors are still without permanent housing, their housing has become much more stable over the past year,” the report said.
Another positive shift reflected in the new report was the number of survey respondents with precarious housing conditions, defined as being unhoused or living with family or friends, decreasing by half over the past year.
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Still, progress has been slower for other things that include Maui’s economy.
“Overall, the findings point to an ongoing, yet uneven recovery process,” the report said. “While some fire-affected people continue to experience serious challenges, others are beginning to regain stability in housing, work, and daily life.”
UHERO began the monthly surveys funded by the Hawai‘i Community Foundation in August 2024 and previously published
reports on results in October and March.
The running survey is designed to track change over time, and provide insight into the lived experience of recovery for people on Maui most affected by fires in Lahaina and Upcountry on Aug. 8, 2023.
Respondents to the survey are people who, as a
result of the fires, were
displaced from Lahaina or
Upcountry, worked in those places or owned a business in those places.
This definition of “fire-affected household” intends to measure economic consequences from the disaster not limited to people who lived in Lahaina and survived that fire, which killed 102 people and destroyed most of the West Maui town, including about 5,500 single-family homes and rental apartments.
Survey findings could
apply to 18,000 to 20,000 people, including about 12,000 who lived in Lahaina before the fire and 6,000 who worked in Lahaina but did not live there.
The new report’s findings on rental rates suggest that several hundred temporary housing units produced by the state and the Federal Emergency Management Agency for fire survivors has somewhat tamped down market rental rates for smaller homes.
UHERO estimated that median monthly rent for
studios and 1-bedroom units on Maui was about $1,800 in June, down from about $2,125 in August 2024 but still up from $1,200 before the disaster.
The report also estimated that median monthly rent for 2-bedroom units declined in the second half of last year to about $2,100 from nearly $2,500 yet still remain higher than $1,600 before the fires.
For homes with three or more bedrooms, the report estimated that median monthly rent has stayed closer to flat at around $3,200 to $3,400 since spiking from $1,700 before the fires.
Carl Bonham, UHERO director, said one thing that has shown very little improvement is Maui’s economy, which is highly reliant on tourism.
“It’s just flat-out the tourism industry on Maui is still a long ways from recovering, and actually has really not recovered all that much over the last year,” he said in an interview Monday.
Bonham said tourism spending on Maui in May and June adjusted for inflation remains about 20% lower than it was in the same months in 2023 before the fires.
“We’re seeing some pretty good improvement in housing stability and maybe some reduction in unmet needs, and maybe less solid improvement in the economy,” he said.
Other findings in the most recent report based on survey results included:
>> About 40% of people who lived in West Maui at the time of the disaster haven’t returned from elsewhere on Maui or out of state.
>> The unemployment rate for fire-affected people is 8% compared with 3% for everyone in Maui County, which includes Molokai and Lanai.
>> For survey respondents employed in the tourism industry before the fires, about 66% still have jobs in the sector, though only 45% have full-time work.
>> About 26% of survey respondents have retired or are otherwise not seeking employment, compared with 19% before the fires.
>> The share of respondents reporting reduced
income was almost 60%,
including 21% reporting
income that was less than half of what it was before the fires.
>> About 24% of affected household income is below the federal poverty line, compared with about 13% before the fires.
The survey each month is not from all of the same people who responded in prior months. UHERO said more than 950 different people have participated
in the survey, with an average of about 430 monthly.
New participants in the survey are welcomed, and can join any time. Participants receive a $20 gift card for the first survey and a
$10 gift card for each monthly follow-up survey that they take.