With just weeks to go before the start of fall quarter at most Washington colleges, the number of international students who will jet across the oceans to attend class here remains something of a mystery.
The uncertainty is fueled by the Trump administration’s decision to increase scrutiny of student visa applicants, and an environment of fear and uncertainty about what those students might face in the U.S. this fall.
At the University of Washington’s Seattle campus, which enrolls the largest number of international students of any school in the state, 940 first-year students from other countries accepted an offer of admission.
That’s almost the same number as accepted last year, before the Trump administration began a more intensive vetting of student visas. But there’s still uncertainty about how many will arrive.
“Generally, we know visas are being issued, and we know the confirmation numbers still look good, but that does not necessarily mean that those students will all show up,” said UW spokesperson Victor Balta in an email.
“Very anecdotally, we’re hearing from some students that it’s taking a little longer than it has historically for them to get their visas,” he said. “We are working with individual students (as we normally would) to help address issues to the extent that we can.” The first day of classes is Sept. 24.
Bellevue College, one of the top draws for international students among the state’s community and technical colleges, has seen a decrease in those students enrolling for the fall quarter. However, the quarter doesn’t start until Sept. 22, and “we do expect to see more newly admitted students enrolling between now and the first week of the quarter as they secure their visas and prepare for arrival in Bellevue,” said Jean D’Arc Campbell, associate vice president of international education and global initiatives, via email.
“I believe the political uncertainty has created some fear and worries for parents and students who are already here,” said D’Arc Campbell, who said the college had 1,372 international students enrolled last year. Those students represented about 6.5% of the school’s enrollment.
Nationally, the picture is muddled because the U.S. State Department, which typically posts the number of student visas issued, has not posted any information about the number issued in June, July or August, said Erica L. Stewart, senior director of advocacy and strategic communications for NAFSA: Association of International Educators, a professional organization based in Washington, D.C.
She said institutions “will have a better grasp of their actual enrollment” later in the fall.
NAFSA’s modeling suggested a 15% drop in overall international enrollment at U.S. colleges and universities, fueled by a potential 30%-40% decline in new students coming to the U.S. It’s those first-year students, the ones who have never studied here or secured a student visa before, who may never show up, experts fear. That could result in a $7 billion blow to the economy and the loss of 60,000 jobs, NAFSA projects. Washington state could lose $144 million, according to NAFSA’s report.
A spring survey by the nonprofit Institute for International Education found that about 35% of U.S. colleges and universities saw a drop in international student applications. But a third of the schools had an increase, and another third said applications stayed the same.
Of those schools anticipating declines, most cited visa application barriers, student decisions to enroll in another country’s institutions, potential problems at the U.S. port-of-entry and concerns about visa status while in the U.S.
Studying in the United States used to be the top priority for many international students, D’Arc Campbell said, but the U.S. is now competing with other countries. He said students are applying to multiple colleges in two or three other countries.
Why are enrollment numbers for 2025 so unclear this late in the year? It’s not just the visa holdup.
At many schools, a student’s upfront financial commitment to enroll is relatively low, at least when it comes to paying the bill for classes. All UW students, whether they live in Washington or some other state or country, pay a nonrefundable $400 fee (the “enrollment confirmation deposit”) to secure their spot in the class.
After that, the next bill isn’t due until October — three weeks after the start of school, when the quarterly tuition bill is paid. UW officials say they won’t have a breakdown of how many in-state, out-of-state and international students make up the freshman class, or the entire undergraduate class, until that milestone passes in October.
This fall, UW expects students from China to make up about half of the incoming class of international students, as they did in fall 2023 and 2024, Balta said. The next four most-represented countries for the same period have been Canada, India, Korea and Taiwan, in alphabetical order, he said.
Washington colleges in general and UW’s Seattle campus in particular have long been a draw for international students, especially from Asian countries, because of the Pacific Rim location.
UW has also scored well on international lists. For example, U.S. News & World Report’s “Best Global Universities” list ranks UW eighth in the world, ahead of Yale and Columbia. The Times Higher Education World University Rankings — an international list compiled by a higher education data company — ranks UW 25th.
First-year international enrollment at UW Seattle reached a historical high in 2011, when 18% of the freshman class came from other countries. Numbers dropped during the pandemic, when international travel was largely shut down, and then climbed in 2022. In 2023, international students made up 12.5% of the freshman class, and in 2024, that number dipped to 10.7%.
Last year, about 10% of the entire undergraduate population at UW Seattle was international students.
State colleges and universities have long sought to attract international students because they add to campus diversity, bring new ideas and pay significantly more in tuition, helping to subsidize in-state students.
One additional concern that could have a long-term effect on international enrollment: The Trump Administration has proposed making a change to student visas that would limit the length of time students can stay in the U.S. The Department of Homeland Security described the rule change as a means of “curbing visa abuse and increasing the Department of Homeland Security’s ability to properly vet and oversee these individuals.”
Practically speaking, the new rule could force many international students to leave the U.S. and obtain a new visa every year, Balta said. “This could be problematic for international students, who would be forced to travel more frequently and would have to go through the process of getting visas on a more regular basis,” he said.
On Aug. 27, NAFSA released a statement strongly opposing that policy change, calling it “a dangerous overreach by government into academia.”