The Orioles have the second-worst starting rotation in MLB this season. The bullpen hasn’t been much better, ranking 25th of 30 teams. Injuries have taken a toll.
Baltimore’s struggles on the mound and with injuries have forced the organization to dig deep into its pitching depth. However, few of those arms are homegrown. Only one (Kade Strowd) was drafted by the Orioles since general manager Mike Elias took over ahead of the 2019 season.
In total, the Orioles have taken 133 players across the six drafts under Elias. Sixty-four of them who were drafted and signed were pitchers, only two of whom were selected in the first three rounds. The focus on drafting position players early bore fruit and formed the Orioles’ current core, but the organization has increased its investment in pitching in recent years.
That’s why the majority of Baltimore’s top pitching prospects were drafted over the past few years rather than early in Elias’ tenure, and most of them have yet to reach Triple-A. While it’s yet to translate to the big leagues, the Orioles’ farm system led all MLB organizations with 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings in 2024. However, a lack of investment in pitchers in the draft from 2019 to 2021 explains why the Orioles have developed so few homegrown pitchers under Elias, and the way Baltimore’s season is unfolding has raised questions about Baltimore’s pitching pipeline.
Of the 64 pitchers Elias has drafted and signed, 40 are still with the organization and only nine have reached Triple-A. Ahead of the MLB draft next week, here’s a look at each of the Orioles’ pitching draft classes during the Elias era:
2019
Still with organization: Kade Strowd (12th round), Houston Roth (29th)
This draft was the last one with 40 rounds, and the Orioles took 19 pitchers — but none in the first seven rounds. Only two of those 19 pitchers are still with the organization. While that number seems low, it’s a result of that draft being six years ago, having more rounds and MLB’s reduction of the minor leagues.
Strowd became the first (and only) homegrown Elias draftee to debut with the Orioles in May. With an impressive sweeper, Strowd, 27, has posted a 4.85 ERA in Triple-A Norfolk this year and pitched 4 1/3 innings for the Orioles. Strowd isn’t the only pitcher from that draft to pitch in the majors, though. Connor Gillispie, a ninth-round pick, was selected by the Cleveland Guardians in the minor league phase of the 2023 Rule 5 draft and made his debut in 2024. Roth, 27, transitioned to the bullpen last season and has found success there, posting a 1.88 ERA and 28.5% strikeout rate between Double-A Chesapeake and Norfolk.
2020
Carter Baumler (5th)
A significant factor as to why the Orioles haven’t developed many homegrown pitchers is because of the organization prioritizing hitters in Elias’ first few drafts and the COVID-shortened 2020 draft that was only five rounds. The Orioles selected six players in 2020, and the last was Baumler, a right-hander out of high school.
Baumler, 23, has impressed when he’s been healthy (a career 3.66 ERA), but that’s infrequently been the case. He’s pitched only 71 1/3 career professional innings despite being with the organization for five years. More than 20 of them, though, have come out of High-A Aberdeen’s bullpen this year with a 3.22 ERA. The Orioles also signed 10 pitchers as undrafted free agents, including Brandon Young, a right-handed starting pitcher currently in the Orioles’ rotation. While Young wasn’t drafted, he’s one of the biggest pitching success stories of the current regime, dominating the minor leagues last season to win the organization’s minor league pitcher of the year award and making his debut this season. Young, 26, has struggled in his brief time in the majors with a 7.02 ERA.
2021
Carlos Tavera (5th), Dylan Heid (11th), Justin Armbruester (12th), Daniel Lloyd (14th), Keagan Gillies (15th), Peter Van Loon (16th), Ryan Long (17th), Alex Pham (19th)
Nine of the 21 players the Orioles drafted were pitchers. None of them have made it to the majors. Only one (Pham) is ranked inside Baltimore’s organizational top 30.
Pham, the last one drafted, is the success story of this group (so far). The 5-foot-11 righty has put up impressive numbers in the minors and looked on the precipice of a promotion to Triple-A this season after posting a 35% strikeout rate across his first five outings in Double-A. But Pham, the Orioles’ No. 27 prospect according to Baseball America, was placed on the injured list in May with forearm inflammation and hasn’t pitched since.
Injuries have been a theme with this group. Tavera, Heid, Van Loon and Armbruester are all on the shelf. Armbruester, a 6-4 righty, was once in Baltimore’s top 30, but he struggled in Norfolk last season and underwent lat muscle surgery in April.
Perhaps the most likely arm from this group to reach the majors is Gillies, whose 6-8 frame could fit in Baltimore’s future bullpen alongside Félix Bautista, Yennier Cano and maybe Tyler Wells. It’s been a slow burn for Gillies, who finally reached Triple-A last week after spending the past three seasons in Double-A. This has been his best showing yet with a 1.11 ERA and a 29.1% strikeout rate, earning the 27-year-old right-hander a place in this week’s MLB All-Star Futures Game.
2022
Trace Bright (5th), Preston Johnson (7th), Cameron Weston (8th), Wyatt Cheney (10th), Bradley Brehmer (12th), Jared Beck (13th), Reese Sharp (20th)
Half of the Orioles’ 22 selections in this draft were pitchers. None of them have pitched in the majors, and only two have made it to Triple-A (Johnson and Weston).
This class has largely struggled, with three of its members (Cheney, Beck, Sharp) pitching out of the bullpen in the lower minors, though Cheney and Sharp have performed well this season. Brehmer is out for the season with an injury, while Bright, a former top-30 arm, has seen his ERA, strikeout rate and walk rate in Double-A all worsen from their marks at the same level last season. Bright has a 5.50 ERA after pitching to a 4.18 ERA last year.
The best pitcher from this group is Weston, an under-the-radar arm who has popped onto the scene this season. He is the only member of this group inside Baltimore’s top 30, ranked at No. 14. While Pham, Bright, Gillies and others have spent two or more seasons in Double-A, Pham only needed 92 1/3 innings there before earning a promotion to Triple-A. The 24-year-old sinkerballer has a 4.58 ERA and 23.9% strikeout rate this season.
Perhaps the most interesting pitcher drafted by the Orioles in 2022 never signed. Baltimore selected Nolan McLean, a right-hander out of Oklahoma State, in the third round, making him the earliest pitcher drafted by the Elias-era Orioles at the time. The two sides couldn’t agree to a deal after McLean’s MRI results. He returned to college, was drafted by the Mets and is now New York’s No. 19 prospect with a 2.80 ERA in Triple-A.
2023
Kiefer Lord (3rd), Levi Wells (4th), Jacob Cravey (6th), Teddy Sharkey (7th), Braxton Bragg (8th), Zach Fruit (9th), Nestor German (11th), Blake Money (12th), Riley Cooper (13th), Michael Forret (14th), Zane Barnhart (17th)
It should be no surprise that the Orioles’ largest draft investment under Elias has led to the best results. This class has largely dominated the minor leagues thus far, and it has the chance to drastically improve Baltimore’s future pitching plans.
Thirteen of the Orioles’ 22 selections in the 2023 draft were pitchers, including two in the first three rounds. At No. 63 overall, Jackson Baumeister, who was traded at last year’s deadline (see more below), is the highest-drafted pitcher in the Elias era. Lord, one of the draft’s best stories as a former Division III pitcher, was then selected in the third round, but he’s since pitched only two professional innings and underwent Tommy John elbow reconstruction surgery last July.
About half of this class, though, has shown significant promise as they’ve quickly risen through the farm system. Seven pitchers drafted by the Orioles are ranked inside their top 30 prospects list, and five are from this class — Forret (No. 6), Bragg (No. 9), Trey Gibson (No. 10), Wells (No. 11) and German (No. 13). Gibson, an undrafted free agent, has some of the best swing-and-miss stuff on the farm, posting a 35.9% strikeout rate this season between Aberdeen and Chesapeake.
Forret, 21, appears to be the star of this class (though there might be more than one) as he’s dominated High-A this season with a 1.59 ERA, 0.807 WHIP and 34.2% strikeout rate. The fastest riser has been Bragg, who entered this season ranked outside Baltimore’s top 30 and now finds himself in the top 10. Between Aberdeen and Chesapeake, the right-hander has pitched to a 1.68 ERA with a 32.8% strikeout rate, though he was placed on the IL last week with forearm discomfort. Wells has some of the best stuff across the minor leagues, and he’s impressed this season with a 2.86 ERA in Double-A. German dominated High-A to earn a promotion to Chesapeake, where he’s posted a 4.60 ERA. Money was also promoted to Double-A after spending the past year and a half posting one of the organization’s best strikeout-to-walk ratios. Fruit, also in Double-A, is on the IL with a lat muscle strain, but he impressed during spring training with his 100 mph fastball.
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2024
Chase Allsup (4th), Carson Dorsey (7th), Jack Crowder (9th), Christian Rodriguez (10th), Sebastian Gongora (11th), Brandon Downer (13th), Cohen Achen (14th), Carter Rustad (15th), Iziah Salinas (17th), Michael Caldon (18th), Evan Yates (20th).
Eleven of the 21 players the Orioles selected in last year’s draft were pitchers, but their sample sizes in professional baseball aren’t large enough to draw conclusions. None of the 11 are ranked inside Baltimore’s top 30 prospects list, though a few have impressed.
Gongora, a 6-5 lefty, struck out 35.4% of batters to earn a promotion to Aberdeen, while Achen has posted a 3.47 ERA at three levels, mostly in Aberdeen. Allsup, the first pitcher selected by the Orioles, has struggled this season in Low-A Delmarva with a 6.35 ERA.
Traded away
Zack Showalter (2022, 11th round), Jackson Baumeister (2023, 2nd round)
Twenty pitchers drafted and signed by the Elias-era Orioles are no longer with the organization. Eighteen of them were either released or taken in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft. The other two were traded away to bolster the major league club at the deadline.
The acquisition of Jack Flaherty from the St. Louis Cardinals in August 2023 was Elias’ first buy-side trade deadline deal as Orioles GM. Baltimore gave up its Nos. 13, 15 and 16 prospects at the time — left-hander Drew Rom, infielder César Prieto and Showalter. Rom was drafted by Dan Duquette in 2018 and Prieto was an international signee, but Showalter was drafted out of high school by Elias’ Orioles in 2022. Showalter, a reliever, put up excellent numbers in the low minors with Baltimore but has struggled with St. Louis, posting a 5.52 ERA with 18 walks in 14 2/3 innings this season in High-A.
A year after the Flaherty trade, Elias acquired Zach Eflin from the Tampa Bay Rays for three prospects drafted in 2023 — Baumeister, third baseman Mac Horvath and outfielder Matthew Etzel. Baumeister, now the Rays’ No. 13 prospect, posted a 6.86 ERA in 10 starts in Double-A before landing on the IL.
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