Happy Meteorological Summer to those who celebrate.
Sunday, June 1, marks the beginning of meteorological summer. Summer will reign until Sept. 1, when meteorological fall begins (in name only in Alabama, unfortunately).
Why “meteorological” summer? Meteorologists use a different timeframe than astronomers to categorize summer.
Meteorological seasons are made up of three-month blocks that start on the first of a month, which makes it easier to tabulate data.
Astronomical summer begins on Friday, June 20. Astronomical summer is driven by the Earth’s orbit and marked by equinoxes and solstices.
June 20 also the summer solstice, also referred to as the longest day of the year.
Summer in Alabama is always hot, but will it be hotter than average?
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has a temperature outlook for June, and it is suggesting slightly elevated odds of warmer-than-average temperatures statewide.
Most of Alabama has a 33-40 percent probability of above-average June temperatures, and areas in extreme south Alabama have slightly higher odds — 40-50 percent. (The June temperature outlook is at the top of this post.)
In fact, most of the U.S. is expected to have warmer-than-average weather. The exceptions are the central part of the country, which has equal chances of above-average or below-average temperatures. Alaska is expected to have below-average temperatures.
For the summer as a whole, expect more of the same. Here is the three-month temperature outlook, which shows increased probabilities (40-50 percent) of above-average temperatures for most of the state:
Most of Alabama has a 40-50 percent probability of experiencing above-average temperatures through August.CPC
Should Alabama expect May’s rainy streak to continue?
The precipitation outlook for June from the Climate Prediction Center, shown below, suggests all of Alabama will have a 40-50 percent probability of above-average rainfall over this month:
Alabama has a 40-50 percent probability of getting above-average rainfall in June.CPC
For the whole summer, the forecast is also tilting toward wetter-than-average weather for the state:
All of Alabama has a 40-50 percent probability of above-average rainfall.CPC
All of Alabama has a 40-50 percent probability of above-average rainfall from June through August.
Fortunately for those sick of rain, there is little in the forecast for the next few days. The exception is parts of northern Alabama, which could see a few showers today.
Look for rain chances to increase again starting on Thursday.