Three thoughts on the Utah Jazz’s 110-106 loss to the Charlotte Hornets from Salt Lake Tribune Jazz beat writer Andy Larsen.
1. Isaiah Collier grabs Jazz rookie assist record
In a season with a lot of downs, intentional and not, one bright spot has been the passing of rookie point guard Isaiah Collier. The USC product plays with a pretty old-school pass-first, shoot-later style that has been fun to watch, especially given that the other Jazz guards are the opposite.
Collier picked up seven assists, giving him a total of 419 for the season. That pushes him above John Stockton’s rookie total of 415, and therefore it’s a new Jazz record.
This, of course, doesn’t make Collier better than Stockton, a Hall of Famer. It’s instead pretty reflective of the opportunity Collier has had (playing 25 minutes per night in his rookie season) compared to the lack of that same opportunity for other Jazz rookie point guards throughout history (for example, Stockton only played 18 minutes per night).
Indeed, the Jazz’s rookie record stands quite low compared to most other NBA teams, despite being the franchise most famous for its point guard play.
While the Jazz’s poor roster has given Collier the opportunity to get the playing time to get this record, it also means that his teammates are probably less adept at finishing his passes. Visually, he passes guys open in a really solid way — these don’t tend to be cheap assists for Collier.
Collier now ranks 56th in the NBA’s all-time rookie assist total, though with six games left, he’ll probably end up around 40th. That’s still quite good. There are very few players with that number of assists who end up struggling to find their way in their NBA careers.
As we’ve talked about before, Collier definitely needs to control his turnovers and improve his shot in order to be a starting NBA point guard in the long term. But the vision and passing delivery skills he’s shown are relatively rare, and a terrific building block.
2. Kyle Filipowski’s lack of rim protection
Kyle Filipowski has only blocked 12 shots this season.
To be sure, he plays 20% of his minutes at the four, making it less likely he’s around the rim to block those shots. But that means 80% of his minutes are at center, giving him opportunities to get those blocks.
When he’s on the floor, Filipowski only blocks 0.5% of opponent shots, per CleaningTheGlass. That’s sixth percentile in the NBA. Looking at the list, the big men who are worse than Filipowski at this skill generally tend to be shorter than he is: Harrison Barnes, Tidjane Salaun, Dario Saric, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Julius Randle, and, yes, Oscar Tshiebwe.
Those are all medium-sized guys playing among the trees, but Filipowski is a legitimate 6-11. He should be blocking about double the amount of shots, perhaps at the rate of a Kelly Olynyk (0.9%), Micah Potter (0.9%), or a Jock Landale (1.0%). Or, ideally, dream even bigger, and become a roughly average shot-blocker: a Thomas Bryant (1.7%), a Nick Richards (1.8%), an Al Horford (1.6%).
It feels like at the moment, Filipowski is too easily displaced or caught off guard by his opponent’s moves to the basket. Mark Williams was 8-9 on baskets tonight, all within the immediate area of the rim. Plays like this, the game’s very first:
Filipowski is there, but immediately cedes ground when he’s bumped by Williams. Then, when Williams does gather the ball, he raises it faster than Filipowski can raise his arm, he’s just beaten to the spot.
Lower body strength will help a ton here, and Filipowski figures to get more of it. He also needs to work on his technique, keeping his arms high with his opponent further out. I think he can do so, and likely will — but it’s a huge improvement spot right now.
3. The toughest test has passed. Will the Jazz finish with the worst record in the league?
That was the best chance at a win the Jazz had remaining, playing the 18-win Hornets. For the first time in franchise history, the team has 60 losses. They’re definitely not done losing, with six games remaining.
But the Jazz have competition for the worst team in the NBA: the Washington Wizards. They stand at 16-59. With the Jazz at 16-60, what are the odds the Jazz will get the No. 1 best lottery odds?
DunksAndThrees.com estimates how likely it is the Jazz will win each of their remaining six games. According to them, the Jazz have a 20% chance of beating the Rockets on the road Wednesday, a 22% chance of beating the Pacers Friday, a 31% chance against the Hawks Sunday, a 40% chance against the Blazers at home on April 9, a 15% chance against the Thunder on Apr. 11, and a 19% chance against the Wolves on Apr. 13.
On average, that would mean 1.47 more wins for the Jazz.
If you do the same for the Wizards, you get 1.93 more wins. That makes sense: they have one more opportunity to accidentally get a W compared to Utah, and they play worse opponents. They have matchups against the Sixers, Heat, Bulls, and Magic, for example.
(Both estimates are likely too high, though, as both teams have shown a willingness to try to lose by adapting their rotations and the injury report. Still, don’t discount the possibility of the teams randomly having a strong shooting night and pulling out a win despite best efforts.)
So the Jazz have to be considered favorites in the clubhouse, but there’s a strong possibility of a tie, too. If the two teams tie, the league would next go to a coin toss.
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