Could this be the year Maryland men’s basketball finally makes another deep run in the NCAA Tournament? Not if the experts are to be believed.
Despite going 25-8 overall and 14-6 in the rugged Big Ten, coming within a last-second layup of advancing to the Big Ten Tournament title game and ranking No. 11 in the latest Associated Press Top 25 poll (and No. 14 in Ken Pomeroy’s widely cited analytics-based ratings), the Terps are not getting much love from analysts when it comes to making some noise in March Madness.
Here’s a rundown of how far the Terps are expected to go according to some of the most notable bracket predictions:
Dick Vitale
The 85-year-old former coach and longtime ESPN broadcaster really likes one team in the West Region, but it’s not the Terps.
In his projected bracket, “Dickie V” has top-seeded Florida advancing to the Final Four and the national championship game before losing to Duke “in a matchup for the ages.”
But, curiously, he doesn’t even have Maryland losing to the Gators. In his predictions, he says that the Terps’ starting five will carry them over No. 13 seed Grand Canyon in the first round but that Maryland will lose to No. 12 seed Colorado State in the second round. “The Terps make a late push, but the Rams step up with clutch free throws in the final minute,” he writes.
Jay Bilas
Consider ESPN’s two biggest college basketball personalities down on the Terps.
Bilas, a former player and assistant coach at Duke, has Maryland losing to No. 5 seed Memphis and star guard PJ Haggerty in the second round in his projected bracket. “I’m going with the Tigers’ dynamic scorers, but this is not a region to feel confident about,” he writes.
In fact, Bilas says that the Terps’ chances of being upset in the first round are high. “Grand Canyon can play,” he writes. “Last season’s roster was a bit better, but the Lopes will not be scared. The Terps will have to play well to win.”
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
Digital producer Emmett Prosser picked the Midwest and West regions, and he’s not blown away by the Terps, either. Like Vitale, he has Maryland losing to Colorado State in the second round.
“Maryland has one of my favorite starting fives in the tournament, anchored in the middle by center Derik Queen, but early matchups with Grand Canyon and Memphis or Colorado State appear treacherous,” Prosser writes. “Colorado State is among the nation’s hottest teams and is playing well enough to beat high-major competition.”
Bleacher Report
Kerry Miller, co-host of the Unnamed Bracketology Podcast, has a little more belief in the Terps, but not overly so.
In his picks, he has Maryland advancing to the Elite Eight against Texas Tech, but he gives the nod to the Red Raiders for a spot in the Final Four. That comes with a caveat, though.
“The massive question here is, of course, the health of Darrion Williams (foot) and Chance McMillian (upper body), both of whom missed Texas Tech’s final game of the Big 12 tournament. If those two are out, the Red Raiders probably don’t even make it this far,” he writes.
The matchup between Williams and JT Toppin vs. Queen and Julian Reese is particularly enticing, Miller says, but he favors Texas Tech’s depth over Maryland’s standout starting unit.
“Give us the really good eight-man rotation over the really good Crab Five, with the asterisk that I’m probably changing this pick if Texas Tech doesn’t actually have its full eight-man rotation,” he writes.
The Athletic
If you’re more interested in hard data, The Athletic’s Slingshot model — which “adjusts teams’ basic strengths according to how closely they statistically resemble favorites and underdogs from past tournaments and, where appropriate, by style matchups” – gives Grand Canyon a 12.4% chance to pull the upset over Maryland.
For context, Slingshot gave the Antelopes a 30% chance to beat Saint Mary’s last year, and Grand Canyon did in fact take down the No. 5 seed Gaels, 75-66.
This season, The Athletic’s Jordan Brenner and Peter Keating note that the Lopes “play faster, shoot worse and are less effective on the offensive glass” than last year’s Cinderella, though the return of guard Tyon Grant-Foster, who averaged 20.1 points per game last season before struggling with injuries this year, is a wild card.
That said, the Slingshot model “loves [Maryland’s] difference in pace between offense and defense, which tells a deeper story.”
“The Terps’ average possession length on offense is 16.1 seconds, which is 29th in the nation. On defense, it drops to 18 seconds (261st). What does that mean? Teams generally get better shots early in the shot clock, so Maryland is creating them on offense and preventing them on defense. That’s a sign of a good team.”
READER POLL: Who will win the NCAA men’s basketball tournament?
Fayetteville Observer
Rodd Baxley, who covers Duke, North Carolina and NC State sports, has the Terps advancing to the Final Four in his bracket, including upsets of No. 1 seed Florida — a trendy national champion pick — and No. 2 St. John’s and Rick Pitino — a rumored Terps coaching candidate at one point before Kevin Willard was hired in 2022.
However, the Terps’ run comes to an end with a loss to No. 1 seed Auburn, denying Maryland a tasty national championship game matchup against hated rival Duke.
“Derik Queen and the Terps will have a torrid run to this point, but the Tigers will win the race in San Antonio,” Baxley writes. “Johni Broome will get Auburn to the title game.”
Have a news tip? Contact sports editor C.J. Doon at cdoon@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200 and x.com/CJDoon.
NCAA Tournament first round
No. 4 seed Maryland vs. No. 13 seed Grand Canyon
At Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Friday, 4:35 p.m.
TV: TBS
Radio: 105.7 FM