Hawaii’s economy, rarely the master of its own fate, heads into the usually blustery month of March and is expected to be tossed by that heavy hitter, the federal government.
The independent group of local economists at the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, UHERO, are predicting a local economy that’s about to be pushed around by forces it can neither control nor even predict.
All that amounts to worry and fear. Much of it is because our future is bound to the whims of the Republican administration of President Donald Trump.
As UHERO said in its late February forecast: “More extensive federal layoffs, tariffs, or deportations could well result in a Hawaii recession and undermine long-term growth prospects.”
The problem is not with Hawaii; the state is showing good employment figures, plus making new jobs and clicking ahead.
The problem is that the federal government and Trump’s policies are hurting Hawaii.
Don’t miss out on what’s happening!
Stay in touch with breaking news, as it happens, conveniently in your email inbox. It’s FREE!
If the situation is not dire, it is certainly not looking good. Here’s what one local economist said in a TV report about the current economy’s future.
“We are not forecasting a recession,” said Carl Bonham, UHERO’s executive director.
“What the report is saying is that the risk of a recession is rising. When the economy gets to the point where it’s not adding any jobs at all, it doesn’t take very much to tip it into negative territory,” he added.
If you are adding up the dollars and cents, such predictions can be staggering.
It means Trump’s hands on the local economy are as helpful as a COVID epidemic.
If the question is how far will Trump go with his cuts, check how his federal whims extend from the presidential announcement to sell off federal buildings.
The big announcement was to shed federal ownership of massive federal edifices like Washington, D.C.’s FBI building — but the local angle is that Trump also wants to sell the Hilo federal building. It is now listed as “not core to government operations, or non-core properties” that have been designated for possible sale or closure.
What does that mean? Who knows, except that there may soon be a “For Sale” sign on a building designed in 1915 and now on the National Register of Historic Places.
The General Services Administration’s description of the building notes: “Elevators have been added over time, including the island’s first passenger elevator in 1950. After the courts vacated the building, the courtroom was transformed into office space.”
Enough about Hilo — the concern is, how is Hawaii as a whole and its people doing?
Will they fit into what seems like the slap-dash fire sale Trump and cronies are going to conduct to raise money for newly promised tax cuts?
According to the nonpartisan research institute, Center of Budget and Policy Priorities, the new Trump budget plan continues the cuts first made in 2017. It would give tax breaks to the wealthy — and cut “health assistance, food assistance and other programs, leaving more children in poverty, more families without stable housing, and more people without health coverage.”
This is not a plan as much as it is a sketch of careless disregard for the ill, needy and forgotten.